Five series this index keeps · recomputed 2026-10-23

LLM prices fall. Not the one you are paying.

Everyone agrees this market gets cheaper every year, and the data agrees too, in exactly one of the five senses it can be measured in. 73% of the endpoints we track have not changed price once in 144 days. The decline reaches whoever migrates, and skips whoever stays put.

Endpoints tracked
866
under price tracking
Rates revised
1,887
834 of them went up
Dated models
207
in the age series
Labs
15
in the release cadence
Released in 2026-Q4
7
models in one quarter

Prices, sourced and dated

Five ways to measure a price drop

Each card is one definition of “the price”, with its own series. Read them side by side: they do not tell the same story.

01 · the price of the endpoint you already run

73%

barely moves

The price of the endpoint you already run barely moves.

That share of the 866 endpoints under price tracking has not moved once in 144 days. Where prices did change, 834 of the 1887 revised rates went up rather than down — the median rise adds 42.9%, the median cut takes back 20%.

the changelog →

Endpoints, by price moves

866 endpoints · 144 days

73%

27%

Never movedMoved at least once

02 · the price of a model, as it ages

−66%

falls

The price of a model, as it ages falls.

Across 207 dated models, the median drops from $2.38/1M under six months old to $0.80/1M past two years. Survivorship caveat included: retired models are not listed and do not appear.

the age discount →

Median price by model age

$ per 1M tokens, blended

$2.38

$0.80

Under 6 monthsPast 2 years

03 · the price of a unit of measured capability

÷205

collapses

The price of a unit of measured capability collapses.

The best benchmark-points-per-dollar on the market went from 15.2 to 3115.2 in 75 days, across 2 successive record holders.

the price of intelligence →

Best points per dollar

2 record holders · 75 days

15.2

3115.2

First recordToday

04 · the price of the best model money can buy

×286

has gone up

The price of the best model money can buy has gone up.

The intelligence record has been held at $0.21/1M and at $60.00/1M — a 286× spread across 13 holders. It costs $60.00 today, against $8.00 when the series opens. The frontier has no natural price.

the price of the frontier →

Price of the intelligence record

$ per 1M tokens, blended

$8.00

$60.00

When the series opensToday

05 · the price of nothing — but the question reopens

34d

reopens

The price of nothing — but the question reopens.

Every 34 days — the median gap between two releases from the same lab, across 15 labs — Alibaba ships one every 7 days. 7 models landed in 2026-Q4 alone.

release cadence →

Days between two releases

same lab, median

34 d

7 d

Median labAlibaba

The verdict

Five series, five definitions, no sixth number: we publish the disagreement, not an arbitration.

A composite “market decline rate” would average away the only thing this page has to say. Method and sources in the methodology; the series themselves are downloadable.

01 · barely moves

73%

02 · falls