How fast do LLM models become obsolete?

A model's real shelf life is set by its own maker's release cadence. Across108 dated models from 13 labs, the busiest brands ship a new model every few weeks — and the global release rate keeps climbing. Three views: each lab's timeline, its median time between releases, and the market-wide acceleration. This measures release cadence, not forced retirement — old models often stay served, at falling prices.

Every release, brand by brand

One row per lab, one dot per model release. Rows sorted by cadence — the density tells the story. Hover a dot for the model; click for its page.

Jul 20242025Jul 20252026Jul 2026Alibaba · 25qwen-2.5-72b — 2024-09-19qwen3-next-80b-a3b — 2024-12-01qwen3-30b-a3b — 2025-04-28qwen3-14b — 2025-04-28qwen3-32b — 2025-04-30qwen3-235b-a22b — 2025-07-21qwen3-coder — 2025-07-22qwen3-235b-a22b-thinking — 2025-07-25qwen3-coder-30b-a3b — 2025-07-31qwen3-next-80b-a3b-thinking — 2025-09-10qwen3-vl-235b-a22b — 2025-09-23qwen3-vl-235b-a22b-thinking — 2025-09-23qwen3-vl-30b-a3b — 2025-10-05qwen3-vl-30b-a3b-thinking — 2025-10-11qwen3-vl-8b — 2025-10-14qwen3-coder-next — 2026-02-03qwen3.5-397b-a17b — 2026-02-15qwen3.5-35b-a3b — 2026-02-23qwen3.5-27b — 2026-02-23qwen3.5-9b — 2026-02-23qwen3.5-122b-a10b — 2026-02-23qwen3.6-35b-a3b — 2026-04-17qwen3.6-27b — 2026-04-22qwen3.8-2.4t-a95b — 2026-08-12qwen3.8-27b — 2026-08-14Google · 7gemma-3-27b — 2025-03-12gemma-4-31b — 2026-04-02gemma-4-26b-a4b — 2026-04-02gemini-3.6-flash — 2026-07-21gemini-3.5-flash-lite — 2026-07-21gemini-3.7-flash — 2026-08-13gemini-3.8-flash — 2026-09-02Anthropic · 4claude-fable-5 — 2026-06-09claude-sonnet-5 — 2026-06-30claude-opus-5 — 2026-07-24claude-fable-5-1 — 2026-09-01xAI · 2grok-4.5 — 2026-07-08grok-4.6 — 2026-08-12Z.ai · 11glm-4.5-air — 2025-07-28glm-4.5v — 2025-08-11glm-4.6 — 2025-09-30glm-4.6v — 2025-12-08glm-4.7 — 2025-12-22glm-4.7-flash — 2026-01-19glm-5 — 2026-02-12glm-5.1 — 2026-04-07glm-5.2 — 2026-06-13glm-5.3 — 2026-08-14glm-5.3-flash — 2026-08-26Mistral · 15mixtral-8x22b — 2024-04-17mistral-nemo — 2024-07-01mistral-large — 2024-11-01mistral-saba — 2025-02-17mistral-medium — 2025-05-07mistral-medium-3 — 2025-05-07mistral-small-3.2-24b — 2025-06-20codestral — 2025-07-30mistral-medium-3.1 — 2025-08-13voxtral-small-24b — 2025-10-30ministral-14b — 2025-12-02ministral-8b — 2025-12-02ministral-3b — 2025-12-02mistral-small — 2026-03-16mistral-medium-3-5 — 2026-04-30Meta · 6llama-3.1-8b — 2024-07-23llama-3.1-70b — 2024-07-23llama-3.2-3b — 2024-09-18llama-3.3-70b — 2024-12-06llama-4-scout — 2025-04-05llama-4-maverick — 2025-04-05MiniMax · 6minimax-m1 — 2025-06-17minimax-m2 — 2025-10-27minimax-m2.1 — 2025-12-23minimax-m2.5 — 2026-02-12minimax-m2.7 — 2026-03-18minimax-m3 — 2026-06-01OpenAI · 9gpt-4o — 2024-05-13gpt-4o-mini — 2024-07-18gpt-4.1-mini — 2025-04-14gpt-oss-20b — 2025-08-05gpt-oss-120b — 2025-08-05gpt-5.6-sol — 2026-07-09gpt-5.6-terra — 2026-07-09gpt-5.6-luna — 2026-07-09gpt-6-astra — 2026-09-03DeepSeek · 11deepseek-chat — 2024-12-26deepseek-v3 — 2024-12-26deepseek-chat-v3 — 2025-03-24deepseek-r1 — 2025-05-28deepseek-chat-v3.1 — 2025-08-21deepseek-v3.1-terminus — 2025-09-22deepseek-v3.2-exp — 2025-09-29deepseek-v3.2 — 2025-12-01deepseek-v4 — 2026-04-24deepseek-v4-flash — 2026-04-24deepseek-v4-flash-vision-exp — 2026-08-21Moonshot · 5kimi-k2-thinking — 2025-11-06kimi-k2.5 — 2026-01-27kimi-k2.6 — 2026-04-21kimi-k2.7-code — 2026-06-12kimi-k3 — 2026-07-16NVIDIA · 4nemotron-3-nano-30b-a3b — 2025-12-15nemotron-3-super-120b-a12b — 2026-03-11nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b — 2026-06-04nemotron-3.5-lightning — 2026-08-11Cohere · 2command-r — 2024-08-30command-a — 2025-03-13

A new model every N days

Median time between two releases of the same lab — the shorter the bar, the faster yesterday's model stops being the newest.

AlibabaAlibaba: a new model every 6 days (median over 25 releases) · last gap 2 daysevery 6 daysGoogleGoogle: a new model every 22 days (median over 7 releases) · last gap 20 daysevery 22 daysAnthropicAnthropic: a new model every 24 days (median over 4 releases) · last gap 39 daysevery 24 daysxAIxAI: a new model every 35 days (median over 2 releases) · last gap 35 daysevery 35 daysZ.aiZ.ai: a new model every 39 days (median over 11 releases) · last gap 12 daysevery 39 daysMistralMistral: a new model every 44 days (median over 15 releases) · last gap 45 daysevery 44 daysMetaMeta: a new model every 57 days (median over 6 releases) · last gap 0 daysevery 57 daysMiniMaxMiniMax: a new model every 57 days (median over 6 releases) · last gap 75 daysevery 57 daysOpenAIOpenAI: a new model every 61 days (median over 9 releases) · last gap 56 daysevery 61 daysDeepSeekDeepSeek: a new model every 64 days (median over 11 releases) · last gap 119 daysevery 64 daysMoonshotMoonshot: a new model every 67 days (median over 5 releases) · last gap 34 daysevery 67 daysNVIDIANVIDIA: a new model every 85 days (median over 4 releases) · last gap 68 daysevery 85 daysCohereCohere: a new model every 195 days (median over 2 releases) · last gap 195 daysevery 195 days

Median of the gaps between consecutive dated releases of each brand (13 brands with 2+ dated models).

The release rate is accelerating

Model releases per quarter across all brands in the index — the market ships faster every year, so shelf lives shrink for everyone.

10202024-Q2: 2 releases2Q22024-Q3: 7 releases7Q32024-Q4: 5 releases5Q42025-Q1: 4 releases420252025-Q2: 11 releases11Q22025-Q3: 17 releases17Q32025-Q4: 14 releases14Q42026-Q1: 13 releases1320262026-Q2: 15 releases15Q22026-Q3: 20 releases20Q3

Only models with a full, sourced release date and a live paid price are counted (108 of the index). The current quarter is still filling up. Verified 2026-09-05. See also the price trend by brand andthe falling price of intelligence ·methodology.

FAQ

How quickly do LLM API models get replaced?

Fast, and accelerating. Across 108 dated models, the fastest-shipping lab (Alibaba) puts out a new model every 6 days on median. Most major labs ship a new model every one to two months — a model is rarely the newest of its brand for more than a quarter.

Is the pace of LLM releases accelerating?

Yes. Counting the models in this index by release quarter, 2024-Q2 saw 2 releases while 2026-Q3 saw 20 — the release rate has climbed steadily, so the effective shelf life of any given model keeps shrinking.

Does a new release make the previous model obsolete?

Not immediately — older models often stay served and get price cuts, which can make them the better value. This page measures release cadence, not forced retirement: it tells you how long a model stays the newest of its line, not when it disappears.